I predict a riot. And a second one when they’re released.

No doubt that when the rioting blows over, the Government will have a lot of questions to answer on what they’re going to do with the rioters, how the police dealt with the riots, and how they’re going to put things right etc.. People aren’t likely to accept what the government says – nobody ever really likes government, and recalling Parliament was called by some, a waste of time.

As Nick Robinson said the Right will probably call for more prisons and harsher prison sentences, while the Left will argue that more money should be pumped into ‘youth services’ – neither of which will really deal with the current situation, or stop it happening again. We’ve built more prisons, and they’re now full, the change in prison sentences means that only long-term prison sentences make any real difference (short sentences just mean that once they’re released they offend again), and pumping money into youth services, clearly, hasn’t done that much good. From a financial point of view, we can afford to neither build more prisons or pump more money into services for the youth of Britain.

The rioters will, obviously or hopefully, serve some sort of prison sentence, but what happens when they are released and or go back to their day to day lives? They’re likely to offend again. 71% of 18-21 year-olds (2004) re-offend when they are released. So prison system needs to change to rehabilitate and reform those who serve prison sentences. Those without qualifications to go back into society and contribute, in any way, shape or form should receive some sort of education or training. In 2003 95% of prisoners needed help with basic literacy, and half of prisoners are at, or below, the level expected of an eleven year old in reading, 66% in numeracy, and 80% in writing – skills which are required in 96% of jobs.

Educating and rehabilitating prisoners doesn’t really conform with the successive government or society’s ‘tough on crime’ stance, but if we’re really going to make sure that prison works and see things improve then we need to make sure that prison works in the long term, not the short term.

We should not be declaring victory on NHS reforms.

As Norman Lamb said on the Politics Show, the concerns over Health Secretary Andrew Lansley’s proposals, have been addressed, and there have been significant changes to the reform bill after concerns from Liberal Democrat MPs. The BBC has already released an article claiming that Nick Clegg will “claim NHS changes victory for Lib Dems”. The opening sentence of the article is;

“Deputy PM Nick Clegg is next week expected to claim the Lib Dems have got their way in coalition battles over a planned shake-up of the NHS in England.”

Without going into detail over the changes that have been made to the original reform, it’s clear that there have been significant changes to the reforms. Eleven of the thirteen demands (including democratic accountability and preventing private firms “cherrypicking” services) – have been secured, and alternative solutions need to meet the remaining two concerns.

“This is not a case of triumphalism. This is a case of improving the policy”

Whilst these changes have come following demands and pressure to ensure that the changes address the concerns people had of the reforms, declaring ‘victory’ and becoming triumphant will do nothing for party support. It would be easy for opposition to label the whole thing as hypocrisy. Whilst we judge Labour for their triumphalism and tribalism (particularly in Wales) we do the same.

This is the opportunity we have been looking for since joining the Coalition; to prove that we are a party that can be trusted on key government policy, that we can be counted on to act responsibly on key government policy and we can form a credible part of governing both as part of a coalition and as a single ruling party. As a party, we have repeated that the reason that we are in government is to address the key issues such as addressing the economic situation and reform of public services, and to act as a ‘buffer’ (or ‘safety valve’ as Norman Lamb called it) against Conservative policy, and we have achieved that – and that is what we should be talking about; the improvement of the NHS reforms and our achievements in government.

“I think actually this is a good demonstration of why the Lib Dems are currently in government. We can be effective in government achieving changes and acting as a sort of safety valve.”

Party members have outlined what they believe should form the party’s strategy in the 2015 General Election, which includes the need to demonstrate where the party has had an affect on government policy, how we can be trusted to act responsibly, and how we have made real progress and gained real achievements in government. And the moment we claim victory over policy reform and become triumphant, is the time when those arguments become flawed and we lose support.